Estimating the infection burden of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Malaysia has reported 2.75 million cases and 31,485 deaths as of 30 December 2021. Underestimation remains an issue due to the underdiagnosis of mild and asymptomatic cases. We aimed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia based on an adjusted case fatality rate (aCFR). Data on reported cases and mortalities were collated from the Ministry of Health official GitHub between 1 March 2020 and 30 December 2021. We estimated the total and age-stratified monthly incidence rates, mortality rates, and aCFR. Estimated new infections were inferred from the age-stratified aCFR. The total estimated infections between 1 March 2020 and 30 December 2021 was 9,955,000-cases (95% CI: 6,626,000-18,985,000). The proportion of COVID-19 infections in ages 0-11, 12-17, 18-50, 51-65, and above 65 years were 19.9% (n = 1,982,000), 2.4% (n = 236,000), 66.1% (n = 6,577,000), 9.1% (n = 901,000), 2.6% (n = 256,000), respectively. Approximately 32.8% of the total population in Malaysia was estimated to have been infected with COVID-19 by the end of December 2021. These estimations highlight a more accurate infection burden in Malaysia. It provides the first national-level prevalence estimates in Malaysia that adjusted for underdiagnosis. Naturally acquired community immunity has increased, but approximately 68.1% of the population remains susceptible. Population estimates of the infection burden are critical to determine the need for booster doses and calibration of public health measures.

Assessment of Heterologous and Homologous Boosting With Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine at 3 Months Compared With Homologous Boosting of BNT162b2 at 6 Months.

Importance: Evidence for the timing of booster vaccination after completion of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac primary vaccination is crucial to guide policy recommendations. Objective: To compare the odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related outcomes after heterologous and homologous boosting of CoronaVac at 3-month intervals and homologous boosting of BNT162b2 at 6-month intervals, with BNT162b2 primary series (2 doses) as the reference group. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study used national data for Malaysia. Participants included all individuals aged 18 years and older who received a complete primary series of CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccine and were eligible for a booster dose between November 21, 2021, and December 28, 2021. Data were analyzed from November 21, 2021, to January 7, 2022. Exposures: Receipt of a booster vs no booster and categorized into primary series BNT162b2 (2 doses of BNT162b2), primary series CoronaVac (2 doses of CoronaVac), 3 doses of BNT162b2, primary series CoronaVac plus a BNT162b2 booster, and 3 doses of CoronaVac. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary outcomes were COVID-19-related intensive care unit admission and death. All outcomes were observed from the day an individual was considered fully boosted (≥14 days after booster dose). Results: Our cohort included 13 840 240 individuals (mean [SD] age, 39.9 [15.5] years; 7 040 298 [50.9%] men; 4 451 180 individuals [32.2%] with ≥1 comorbidities), of whom 5 081 641 individuals (36.7%) had received a booster dose. Using the primary series BNT162b2 recipients as reference, the adjusted odds against symptomatic SAR-CoV-2 infection were lower for individuals who received the primary series CoronaVac plus a BNT162b2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.06 [95% CI, 0.05-0.06]), 3 doses of CoronaVac (aOR, 0.08 [95% CI, 0.06-0.10]), or 3 doses of BNT162b2 (aOR, 0.01 [95% CI, 0.00-0.01]). Receipt of heterologous booster (primary series of CoronaVac plus a BNT162b2 booster) was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aOR, 0.17 [95% CI, 0.17-0.18]) compared with homologous booster (3 doses of CoronaVac) for individuals aged 60 years and older (aOR, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.19-0.20]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, for individuals who received the CoronaVac primary series and a booster dose of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac at 3 months, the observed odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were similar to individuals who received the BNT162b2 primary series plus a third dose of BNT162b2 at 6 months. Heterologous booster is recommended for individuals aged 60 years or older who received the CoronaVac primary series, given the lower observed odds against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among those who received a BNT1612b2 booster.

Waning COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness for BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in Malaysia: An Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate and compare waning vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infection, COVID-19 related ICU admission, and COVID-19-related death for BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. METHODS: We consolidated national data on COVID-19 vaccination and outcomes, and used cases from September 1st-30th, 2021 to compare VE between the 'early' (fully vaccinated in April-June 2021) and 'late' (July-August 2021) groups. We estimated VE against COVID-19 infection with a negative binomial regression and VE against ICU admission and death among confirmed COVID-19 cases with a logistic regression. RESULTS: For BNT162b2, VE against COVID-19 infections declined from 90.8% (95% CI 89.4, 92.1) in the 'late' group to 79.3% (95% CI 76.1, 82.1) in the 'early' group. VE for BNT162b2 against ICU admission and death were stable. For CoronaVac, VE waned against COVID-19 infections from 74.5% (95% CI 70.6, 78.0) to 30.4% (95% CI 18.8, 40.3). Effectiveness against ICU admission waned from 56.0% (95% CI 51.2, 60.2) to 28.7% (95% CI 12.2, 42.1). CoronaVac's effectiveness against death remained stable. CONCLUSION: VE against COVID-19 infection waned after 3-5 months of full vaccination for both BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines in Malaysia. For CoronaVac, protection against ICU admission also declined.

Waning COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness for BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in Malaysia: An Observational Study

Objectives : We aimed to investigate and compare waning vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infection, COVID-19 related ICU admission and COVID-19 related death for BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. Methods : We consolidated national data on COVID-19 vaccination and outcomes, and used cases from 1 to 30 September 2021 to compare VE between the ‘early’ (fully vaccinated in April to June 2021) and ‘late’ (July to August 2021) groups. We estimated VE against COVID-19 infection with a negative binomial regression, and VE against ICU admission and death among confirmed COVID-19 cases with a logistic regression. Results : For BNT162b2, VE against COVID-19 infections declined from 90•8% (95% CI 89•4, 92•1) in the ‘late’ group to 79•3% (95% CI 76•1, 82•1) in the ‘early’ group. VE for BNT162b2 against ICU admission and death were stable. For CoronaVac, VE waned against COVID-19 infections from 74•5% (95% CI 70•6, 78•0) to 30•4% (95% CI 18•8, 40•3). Effectiveness against ICU admission waned from 56•0% (95% CI 51•2, 60•2) to 28•7% (95% CI 12•2, 42•1). CoronaVac's effectiveness against death remained stable. Conclusion : VE against COVID-19 infection waned after three to five months of full vaccination for both BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines in Malaysia. For CoronaVac, protection against ICU admission also declined.

PICK-ing Malaysia's Epidemic Apart: Effectiveness of a Diverse COVID-19 Vaccine Portfolio.

Malaysia rolled out a diverse portfolio of predominantly three COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) beginning 24 February 2021. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness with two methods, covering 1 April to 15 September 2021: (1) the screening method for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic COVID-19; and (2) a retrospective cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases for COVID-19 related ICU admission and death using logistic regression. The screening method estimated partial vaccination to be 48.8% effective (95% CI: 46.8, 50.7) against COVID-19 infection and 33.5% effective (95% CI: 31.6, 35.5) against symptomatic COVID-19. Full vaccination is estimated at 87.8% effective (95% CI: 85.8, 89.7) against COVID-19 infection and 85.4% effective (95% CI: 83.4, 87.3) against symptomatic COVID-19. Among the cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases, partial vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 31.3% effective (95% CI: 28.5, 34.1) in preventing ICU admission, and 45.1% effective (95% CI: 42.6, 47.5) in preventing death. Full vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 79.1% effective (95% CI: 77.7, 80.4) in preventing ICU admission and 86.7% effective (95% CI: 85.7, 87.6) in preventing deaths. Our findings suggest that full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in Malaysia has been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19-related ICU admission, and death.

Spatial Dynamics and Multiscale Regression Modelling of Population Level Indicators for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia.

As COVID-19 dispersion occurs at different levels of gradients across geographies, the application of spatiotemporal science via computational methods can provide valuable insights to direct available resources and targeted interventions for transmission control. This ecological-correlation study evaluates the spatial dispersion of COVID-19 and its temporal relationships with crucial demographic and socioeconomic determinants in Malaysia, utilizing secondary data sources from public domains. By aggregating 51,476 real-time active COVID-19 case-data between 22 January 2021 and 4 February 2021 to district-level administrative units, the incidence, global and local Moran indexes were calculated. Spatial autoregressive models (SAR) complemented with geographical weighted regression (GWR) analyses were executed to determine potential demographic and socioeconomic indicators for COVID-19 spread in Malaysia. Highest active case counts were based in the Central, Southern and parts of East Malaysia regions of Malaysia. Countrywide global Moran index was 0.431 (p = 0.001), indicated a positive spatial autocorrelation of high standards within districts. The local Moran index identified spatial clusters of the main high-high patterns in the Central and Southern regions, and the main low-low clusters in the East Coast and East Malaysia regions. The GWR model, the best fit model, affirmed that COVID-19 spread in Malaysia was likely to be caused by population density (ß coefficient weights = 0.269), followed by average household income per capita (ß coefficient weights = 0.254) and GINI coefficient (ß coefficient weights = 0.207). The current study concluded that the spread of COVID-19 was concentrated mostly in the Central and Southern regions of Malaysia. Population's average household income per capita, GINI coefficient and population density were important indicators likely to cause the spread amongst communities.